| Metric | Bucket | Score | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real retail & food-service sales | consumer | +1 | 2026-05-01 |
| Real personal consumption | consumer | -25 | 2026-04-01 |
| Credit-card delinquency rate | credit | +20 | 2026-01-01 |
| Auto/consumer loan delinquency | credit | +26 | 2026-01-01 |
| Banks tightening C&I standards | credit | +6 | 2026-04-01 |
| Rail freight carloads | industrial | -0 | 2026-03-01 |
| Industrial production | industrial | +8 | 2026-05-01 |
| Truck tonnage index | industrial | +51 | 2026-03-01 |
| Real M2 money supply | liquidity | +13 | 2026-04-01 |
| Fed balance sheet (total assets) | liquidity | +94 | 2026-06-10 |
| Overnight reverse repo (drain) | liquidity | +26 | 2026-06-18 |
Each metric is scored by magnitude (z-score vs its own trailing trend, clipped to ±2), not a binary up/down. Rates (delinquencies) are scored on their year-over-year change; trending levels (rail, M2) on year-over-year growth. Buckets weight Industrial 30 / Consumer 30 / Credit 25 / Liquidity 15, renormalized over whatever metrics reported. v1 is FRED-sourced (11/19 metrics); company-filing bellwethers (Fastenal, Caterpillar, Walmart, Amazon, Capital One…) layer in next. Generated 2026-06-18. Not investment advice.