| Metric | Bucket | Score | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real retail & food-service sales | consumer | +22 | 2026-08-01 |
| Real personal consumption | consumer | -15 | 2026-08-01 |
| Credit-card delinquency rate | credit | +24 | 2026-04-01 |
| Auto/consumer loan delinquency | credit | +24 | 2026-04-01 |
| Banks tightening C&I standards | credit | +27 | 2026-07-01 |
| Rail freight carloads | industrial | -1 | 2026-07-01 |
| Industrial production | industrial | +21 | 2026-08-01 |
| Truck tonnage index | industrial | -14 | 2026-07-01 |
| Real M2 money supply | liquidity | +40 | 2026-08-01 |
| Fed balance sheet (total assets) | liquidity | +72 | 2026-09-30 |
| Overnight reverse repo (drain) | liquidity | +22 | 2026-10-06 |
Each metric is scored by magnitude (z-score vs its own trailing trend, clipped to ±2), not a binary up/down. Rates (delinquencies) are scored on their year-over-year change; trending levels (rail, M2) on year-over-year growth. Buckets weight Industrial 30 / Consumer 30 / Credit 25 / Liquidity 15, renormalized over whatever metrics reported. v1 is FRED-sourced (11/19 metrics); company-filing bellwethers (Fastenal, Caterpillar, Walmart, Amazon, Capital One…) layer in next. Generated 2026-10-07. Not investment advice.