| Metric | Bucket | Score | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real retail & food-service sales | consumer | +17 | 2026-06-01 |
| Real personal consumption | consumer | -21 | 2026-06-01 |
| Credit-card delinquency rate | credit | +20 | 2026-01-01 |
| Auto/consumer loan delinquency | credit | +25 | 2026-01-01 |
| Banks tightening C&I standards | credit | +25 | 2026-07-01 |
| Rail freight carloads | industrial | +11 | 2026-05-01 |
| Industrial production | industrial | +4 | 2026-06-01 |
| Truck tonnage index | industrial | +9 | 2026-05-01 |
| Real M2 money supply | liquidity | +33 | 2026-06-01 |
| Fed balance sheet (total assets) | liquidity | +82 | 2026-07-29 |
| Overnight reverse repo (drain) | liquidity | +10 | 2026-08-04 |
Each metric is scored by magnitude (z-score vs its own trailing trend, clipped to ±2), not a binary up/down. Rates (delinquencies) are scored on their year-over-year change; trending levels (rail, M2) on year-over-year growth. Buckets weight Industrial 30 / Consumer 30 / Credit 25 / Liquidity 15, renormalized over whatever metrics reported. v1 is FRED-sourced (11/19 metrics); company-filing bellwethers (Fastenal, Caterpillar, Walmart, Amazon, Capital One…) layer in next. Generated 2026-08-05. Not investment advice.